The Chinese Civil War based on «Foreign Affairs» magazine

Civil War and Foreign Influence∗

We use different variations of the canonical bargaining model of civil war to illustrate why a potential alliance with a third (foreign) party that affects the probability of winning the conflict can trigger or prolong an already existing civil war. We explore both political and economic incentives for a third party to intervene. The explicit consideration of political incentives leads to two p...

Foreign Intervention and Belligerents’ Capabilities in Civil War

On the Economic Consequences of Civil War

A model of the economic effects of civil war and the post-war period is developed. A key feature is the adjustment of the capital stock through capital flight. Post-war this flight can either be reversed or continue, depending partly upon how far the capital stock has adjusted to the war. The model is tested on data for all civil wars since 1960. After long civil wars the economy recovers rapid...

Do Broad Based Governments Discourage Civil War?

This paper links the share of the population supporting the government to the risk of civil war. We study the question both theoretically and empirically. The theoretical model shows that having a smaller group of individuals control the government has an ambiguous effect on conflict risk: although a smaller group is less able to resist rebellion, its high per capita office rent, cost of regain...

Foreign Affairs and Trade

It is known that a theory in S5-epistemic logic with several agents may have numerous models. This is because each such model specifies also what an agent knows about infinite intersections of events, while the expressive power of the logic is limited to finite conjunctions of formulas. We show that this asymmetry between syntax and semantics persists also when infinite conjunctions (up to some...